When a storm is this close to landfall, it is good to start “nowcasting.” This term is used in the weather world to refer to the act of forecasting based on current observations as opposed to using the various meteorological models available. For the last two days, the models have been indicating that Tropical Storm Alex would eventually turn toward the NW and then the WNW. They’ve also been projecting that Alex would strengthen to a cateegory 1 hurricane prior to landfall. Now that we are less than 36 hours from landfall, it is time to make sure these model projections are panning out by “nowcasting.”

The two visible satellite images below were taken 7 hours apart. The top image is from 645 AM and the bottom image is from 145 PM. The red dots are the official NHC forecast points from this morning. The first point indicates where Alex was at 6 AM. The second point shows where the NHC predicted Alex would be at noon today. The most recent satellite image shows that Alex’s center (green dot) is further south than was predicted this morning. The red line shows the NHC’s forecast and the green line shows reality. By using “nowcasting,” it becomes obvious that Alex has begun its WNW turn. In fact, the NHC has just shifted their track accordingly as I write this. The tropical cyclone also looks better organized in the most recent image, which indicates that Alex is indeed strengthening.

June 29 - 645 AM MDT

June 29 - 145 PM MDT