Tropical Storm Alex

Tropical Storm Alex became the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 26th. It made landfall over the southern Yucatan Peninsula early on June 27th and emerged over the Gulf of Mexico about 24 hours later. As of June 28th at 3PM MDT, Tropical Storm Alex is off the western Yucatan Peninsula moving NNW at 5 mph. An upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico is causing Alex’s current NNW movement. This same upper-level low is also inducing some wind shear, which is inhibiting the storm’s development. The low is expected to exit the region, which should allow Alex to strengthen and move more toward the west.

The ICAT Damage Estimator shows that there have been four U.S. landfalling storms within 50 miles of Tropical Storm Alex’s current position since 1900. Tropical Storm Arlene of 1993 was the only one that formed in the month of June. It took a similar track to the current forecast for Tropical Storm Alex, though a bit further north into Texas. Alex is expected to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane, which is stronger than Arlene was with only 60 mph winds at landfall. The expected landfall over rural northeastern Mexico should minimize the damages from this storm. Landfall is still a couple days away though, and there is always a large amount of uncertainty in tropical forecasts this far out.