Tropical Storm Ida formed off the coast of Nicaragua on Wednesday (Nov 4th, 2009), and could possibly move north into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days if the storm can stay together while crossing the higher terrain of Central America. Most of the computer models take the storm north over the next 5-7 days:
A quick check of the “radius” feature on the Active Storms tab shows six landfalling storms that passed within 150 miles of Ida’s current position. Four of these six storms made landfall in the state of Florida, and three of the four Florida storms made landfall in October or November. This “Florida track” follows the “normal” track of late-season storms, which are usually pushed toward the east by mid-latitude “cold” storms moving from west-to-east across the United States.
The other two storms formed earlier in the season (June and September) and were able to move straight north into the central Gulf of Mexico coastline. The highlighted storm below is the second storm in 1916, which could cause nearly $14 billion in damage if it made landfall in 2009.
This due north path for Ida is not a normal path for a late-season storm, though using history as a guide, a Category 2 or 3 landfall from the Florida coastline all the way to Louisiana is not out of the realm of possibility. The average damage from these six storms if they made landfall in 2009 is about $3 billion, with median damage of about $1 billion. Time will tell…but we’re not out of the 2009 hurricane season just yet.
My previous estimate of $435m in damage is likely going to be very high, as it is now doubtful that Danny will reach hurricane status or significantly impact any U.S. real estate. Of course anything can happen over the next 48 hours, but for now damage from Danny looks to be very, very low or almost non-existent.
With the current (Wednesday PM) track models showing Danny skirting the North Carolina shoreline and heading toward southeastern New England, I put together a list of similar storms from the ICAT Damage Estimator database.
Alma, 1962 Barbara, 1953 Bob, 1991 Carol, 1954 Edna, 1954 Esther, 1961 Gloria, 1985 Storm #7, 1944
The average damage for these storms if they all struck in 2009 is about $6 Billion per storm. However, these storms made landfall at varying strengths, from Tropical Storm to Category Three. Since Danny is projected to be a Category One storm during the time of highest impact to land, we can massage the historical damages to see how much damage the storms would cause if they were all Category One storms. From our 2008 paper in the Natural Hazards Review:
Damage from Category Two = 6x the damage from Category One Damage from Category Three = 18x the damage from Category One
After making this adjustment, and holding constant the damage from the two Tropical Storms on the list (Alma and Esther), the average damage per storm is about $435 Million. This provides a good initial damage estimate for Danny. Please keep in mind that this is an estimate of TOTAL ECONOMIC DAMAGE, and insured damage usually runs about 50% of the total economic damage. Let’s see how this works out in the coming days.
Thanks for reading.
Here is a screenshot of the analogous storms:
It was inevitable that storms would form in the Atlantic, even if it took until August 11th for Tropical Storm Ana to organize.
What was Tropical Storm Claudette came ashore late Sunday night near Fort Walton Beach, Florida. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 50mph, and the fastest wind gusts I could find on land were about 60-65mph. Damage is expected to be very light and mostly contained to loose outdoor items (chairs, patio furniture, signs) that were not tied down. While Claudette was a rather weak and ill-formed Tropical Storm, the ICAT Damage Estimator showed other Tropical Storms that made landfall in a similar location. In the scheme of things, damage from these other Tropical Storms was rather light (few millions of USD).
The ICAT Damage Estimator shows other Tropical Storms that made landfall in a similar location as Claudette.
You can also view Tropical Depression Ana in the ICAT Damage Estimator. The map below show all historical storms that passed within 50 miles of Ana’s current position. It is likely that Ana will remain weak over the next day or two, but the storm could strengthen later this week as it moves closer to Florida.
Historical storms that passed within 50 miles of Tropical Depression Ana.
The last in the trifecta of storms is Hurricane Bill, which will likely miss the U.S. East Coast but could remain a threat for Bermuda.
Hurricane Bill is likely to stay away from the United States.
What is the damage score this hurricane season?
June 2009 = $0. July 2009 = $0.
June 2009 = $0.
July 2009 = $0.
No significant storms have impacted the U.S. through July 10, 2009, but four years ago was another story.
On July 10, 2005, Hurricane Dennis roared ashore on the Florida panhandle with 120mph sustained winds. Damage amounted to about $2.2 billion in 2005, which would be about $2.6 billion if the storm were to strike today.
Another July billion-dollar storm, Hurricane Dolly, might be fresh in your mind from 2008, but a far more destructive storm holds the record for most damage caused in July.
On July 5, 1916 the “Middle Gulf Coast” hurricane made landfall near the Alabama/Mississippi border as a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 m.p.h. The storm surge in Mobile, AL was measured at almost 12 feet, and water inundated the entire business district. If this storm were to strike in 2009 it would cause an estimated $13.8 billion in damage – more than five times that of Dennis. This amount of damage is comparable to Hurricane Frances ($11.8 billion) that struck Florida in 2004 or Hurricane Rita ($11.3 billion) that struck Texas and Louisiana in 2005.
Some other notable July damage information:
Much like storms in the month of June, most July storms form in the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. However, there are a few storms in the damage record (Bertha 1996, Claudette 1979 & 2003) that formed further east in the Atlantic. This gradual shift in storm formation toward Africa agrees well with climatology, based on the following map from the National Hurricane Center of average formation locations during July.
Average storm locations for July.
Welcome to the ICAT Damage Estimator blog. While storm activity might not be consistent throughout the official Atlantic storm season from June 1st through November 30th, we will post informative, educational, and current storm updates on a regular basis. Check back often, and add our RSS feed to your favorite RSS reader programs.
The ICAT Damage Estimator website is all about going ‘Back to the Future’. While computer simulations of the weather are getting better and better every year, there is still little ability to accurately predict individual storms over the coming weeks and months. The best tools we have to estimate the future on the order of months often rely on history. In a sense, we look ‘Back’ to get a good idea of what the ‘Future’ might hold.
If we look back to all damaging storms in the United States from 1900-2008 that made landfall in June, we find that these storms account for very few of the total number of landfalls, and even less of the total damage. Here are the statistics (all were researched using this website):
Most storms that do form during June originate in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean, and these storms generally travel north toward the United States. Overall, few storms strike the United States during June and even fewer cause significant damage. But based on the average starting point and path of June storms, if one does form, it is likely to impact the U.S. coast. The National Hurricane Center produced the following image about June storms:
While the past is usually the best tool we have to create longer terms forecasts, remember, of course, that anything can happen.
Comments and questions welcome!
