Hurricane Alex made landfall June 30, 2010 around 9 PM CDT near the municipality of Soto La Marina, Mexico, which is about 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. It made landfall as a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph. Southern Texas experienced wind gusts up to 60 mph and rainfall of 6-12 inches. Alex will weaken quickly as it is now over land. The center of circulation should dissipate within the next 24 hours. The rain and wind will continue to subside in southern Texas. The map below is from the National Hurricane Center, and shows the cumulative wind history of Hurricane Alex with tropical storm force winds in orange and hurricane force winds in red.
Hurricane Alex Cumulative Wind History
Below is a collection of satellite and radar images of Hurricane Alex near landfall. Alex was an abnormally well-organized hurricane for this early in the season. A minimum central pressure of 947 mb was recorded within Alex near landfall. A pressure this low usually corresponds to a category 3 or 4 hurricane. Luckily, the storm made landfall before the winds could catch up with the pressure.
Radar from June 30 - 840 PM CDT
Satellite from June 30 - 545 PM CDT
Satellite from June 30 - 515 PM CDT
When a storm is this close to landfall, it is good to start “nowcasting.” This term is used in the weather world to refer to the act of forecasting based on current observations as opposed to using the various meteorological models available. For the last two days, the models have been indicating that Tropical Storm Alex would eventually turn toward the NW and then the WNW. They’ve also been projecting that Alex would strengthen to a cateegory 1 hurricane prior to landfall. Now that we are less than 36 hours from landfall, it is time to make sure these model projections are panning out by “nowcasting.”
The two visible satellite images below were taken 7 hours apart. The top image is from 645 AM and the bottom image is from 145 PM. The red dots are the official NHC forecast points from this morning. The first point indicates where Alex was at 6 AM. The second point shows where the NHC predicted Alex would be at noon today. The most recent satellite image shows that Alex’s center (green dot) is further south than was predicted this morning. The red line shows the NHC’s forecast and the green line shows reality. By using “nowcasting,” it becomes obvious that Alex has begun its WNW turn. In fact, the NHC has just shifted their track accordingly as I write this. The tropical cyclone also looks better organized in the most recent image, which indicates that Alex is indeed strengthening.
June 29 - 645 AM MDT
June 29 - 145 PM MDT
Tropical Storm Alex
Tropical Storm Alex became the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 26th. It made landfall over the southern Yucatan Peninsula early on June 27th and emerged over the Gulf of Mexico about 24 hours later. As of June 28th at 3PM MDT, Tropical Storm Alex is off the western Yucatan Peninsula moving NNW at 5 mph. An upper-level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico is causing Alex’s current NNW movement. This same upper-level low is also inducing some wind shear, which is inhibiting the storm’s development. The low is expected to exit the region, which should allow Alex to strengthen and move more toward the west.
The ICAT Damage Estimator shows that there have been four U.S. landfalling storms within 50 miles of Tropical Storm Alex’s current position since 1900. Tropical Storm Arlene of 1993 was the only one that formed in the month of June. It took a similar track to the current forecast for Tropical Storm Alex, though a bit further north into Texas. Alex is expected to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane, which is stronger than Arlene was with only 60 mph winds at landfall. The expected landfall over rural northeastern Mexico should minimize the damages from this storm. Landfall is still a couple days away though, and there is always a large amount of uncertainty in tropical forecasts this far out.
